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Successful Use of Risk Modelling and Simulations in Civil Engineering Mega Projects

A Workshop by Judith Nissan and Yehuda Sapir
Risk Management Consultant and Keshet Solutions

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About this workshop

Civil engineering mega projects hardly exercises efficient and effective risk management in general, and lacks utilizing advanced simulations such as Monte Carlo, to support decision making. The webinar will demonstrate successful utilization of these simulations, along the project's life cycle and road map, supporting decision making in critical points such as contingency decision. The aim of the webinar is to demonstrate simplification of these simulations, to be used by project managers and decision makers, in a friendly manner, to ease and enhance decision making.

Few months ago one of the largest government owned companies (dealing with infrastructure longitudinal civil engineering projects) was asked by the MOT to provide, as part of the RFT (Ready for Tender approval) supporting data based on a statistical modeling, to assess and validate the contingency allocated to the project. This was a critical milestone since MOT would not let open bidders' proposals without successful validation of the contingency.

During the whole process we've been dealing with skepticism, biased information, not always reliable, difficulties to assess the ranges of each risk (Pessimistic, Most Likely, Optimistic), fears from the process itself and its results, should I say - fears from total failure, which will lead to not opening the proposals, crisis.

Judith Nissan

Procurement and Contracts Management specialist, experienced particularly in the field of rail transportation Mega Projects in Israel as a previous head of procurement for the Electrification Project and the Tel Aviv LRT Project. MBA and PMP certified.

Yehuda Sapir

Risk Management consultant. For the last ten years working as a private consultant for risk management in civil engineering and industrial, large scale projects in Israel, following 20 years of experience as a senior project manager. Mechanical engineer, certified as PMP, RMP and ISO31000. Specialist in transportation projects and longitudinal infrastructures as well as PPP tenders' management. Serving as the risk management consultant for the Israeli Roads Company, as well as for other governmental owned companies and the private sector including entrepreneurs and contractors.

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