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Pandemic modeling has come to the forefront of the world's attention this year. "Flattening the curve" became a global mantra and analysts raced to make predictions and issue dire warnings. We now have an abundance of data to sift through. So what now? How can we make pandemic modelling more effective?
Account for uncertainty at every turn. Cure the "Flaw of Averages" [Dr. Sam Savage] by using stochastic models which faithfully include the full range of possible outcomes in every calculation.
Collaborate. A pandemic model may be the basis for many other enterprises operating in the same environment including hospitalizations, unemployment, or supply-chain demands.
Aggregate models to optimize decision-making. Creating a portfolio of models provides the basis or platform to optimize results, helping to discover the optimal risk-reward balance.