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Stochastic Contagion Models for Collaborative Pandemic Risk Management

A workshop by Sam Savage and Bridget Cash
ProbabilityManagement.org and ProbabilityManagement.org

12 October 2020, 11:00 AM

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These speakers are giving away the following

Free Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows ($500 value) With all versions of the SIPmath Modeler Tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty. The Enterprise version of the SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows, a $500 value, includes numerous extra features such as correlated variables and one hour of technical support. To learn more, visit https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/enterprise

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About this workshop

Pandemic modeling has come to the forefront of the world's attention this year. "Flattening the curve" became a global mantra and analysts raced to make predictions and issue dire warnings. We now have an abundance of data to sift through. So what now? How can we make pandemic modelling more effective?

Account for uncertainty at every turn. Cure the "Flaw of Averages" [Dr. Sam Savage] by using stochastic models which faithfully include the full range of possible outcomes in every calculation.

Collaborate. A pandemic model may be the basis for many other enterprises operating in the same environment including hospitalizations, unemployment, or supply-chain demands.

Aggregate models to optimize decision-making. Creating a portfolio of models provides the basis or platform to optimize results, helping to discover the optimal risk-reward balance.

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Sam Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member. Dr. Savage is the author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.

Bridget Cash

Ms. Cash oversees Probability Management's initiative in Collaborative Pandemic Modeling, in which SIP Libraries of global uncertainties such as climate change, economic activity and pandemics may be used to drive government, healthcare and commercial models on any software platform. She specializes in non-profit leadership, community outreach, stakeholder facilitation and strategic communications. Cash’s passion for non-profit work began at the American Red Cross (Palo Alto Chapter) where she served as the Director of Volunteer Resources. Since then, she has consulted on numerous environmental projects, promoting public engagement through outreach as well as stakeholder and meeting facilitation. She has served on the board of directors for the PACT Foundation (President) as well as on her School Site Council. Cash holds a BS in biochemistry from the University of Wisconsin - Madison.

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