Stochastic Contagion Models for Collaborative Pandemic Risk Management

Pandemic modeling has come to the forefront of the world's attention this year. "Flattening the curve" became a global mantra and analysts raced to make predictions and issue dire warnings. We now have an abundance of data to sift through. So what now? How can we make pandemic modelling more effective?

Account for uncertainty at every turn. Cure the "Flaw of Averages" [Dr. Sam Savage] by using stochastic models which faithfully include the full range of possible outcomes in every calculation.

Collaborate. A pandemic model may be the basis for many other enterprises operating in the same environment including hospitalizations, unemployment, or supply-chain demands.

Aggregate models to optimize decision-making. Creating a portfolio of models provides the basis or platform to optimize results, helping to discover the optimal risk-reward balance.

About The Speakers

Sam Savage

Sam Savage

Executive Director,

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member.

Bridget Cash

Bridget Cash

Chair of Collaborative Pandemic Modeling,

Ms. Cash oversees Probability Management's initiative in Collaborative Pandemic Modeling, in which SIP Libraries of global uncertainties such as climate change, economic activity and pandemics may be used to drive government, healthcare and commercial models on any software platform. She specializes in non-profit leadership, community outreach, stakeholder facilitation and strategic communications. Cash’s passion for non-profit work began at the American Red Cross (Palo Alto Chapter) where she served as the Director of Volunteer Resources. Since then, she has consulted on numerous environmental projects, promoting public engagement through outreach as well as stakeholder and meeting facilitation. She has served on the board of directors for the PACT Foundation (President) as well as on her School Site Council. Cash holds a BS in biochemistry from the University of Wisconsin - Madison.