Crowdsourcing distributions

All organizations face uncertainty in their revenue forecasts, but in 2020 the amount of uncertainty is greatly increased. ProbabilityManagement.org and GFOA have developed an Excel template that helps quantify this uncertainty, assisting users to think strategically about the chances of meeting their goals.

The model tells you the chance that your actual revenue will meet any specified spending goals, given your forecast.

About The Speakers

Shayne Kavanagh

Shayne Kavanagh

Senior Manager, Research, Government Finance Officers Association

Shayne is the Senior Manager of Research for GFOA and has been a leader in developing the practice and technique of long-term financial planning and policies for local government. He started GFOA's long-term financial planning and policy consulting offering in 2002 and has been working with governments on financial planning and policies ever since. Shayne has worked with many governments of different sizes and types on financial planning and policies across the United States and Canada. He is also the Chair of Government Finance Applications for ProbabilityManagement.org.


Sam Savage

Sam Savage

Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member.