RISK AWARENESS WEEK 2020

Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo Alex Sidorenko Sam Savage

Decision Support for Security Projects in a VUCA Environment

A Workshop by Alex Sidorenko , Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo and Sam Savage

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About this Workshop

Two key uncertainties often drive security projects -- 1) a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) threat landscape, and 2) varying degrees of effectiveness in reducing risk.

Influence (relevance) diagrams help us plan our model. Scenario planning provides a view of how the future might unfold. Stochastic decision models account for the full range of possible outcomes. Sensitivity analysis provides insight to which initiatives we should prioritize. Decision trees allow us to evaluate the robustness of the security project against the various scenarios.

By assembling these decision analytic tools in a thoughtful way (akin to LEGO blocks), we can clearly communicate the value of the project in business terms to support decision making.

About The Speakers

Alex Sidorenko

Alex Sidorenko

Chief Risk Officer, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis

Alex Sidorenko is an expert with over 15 years of private equity, sovereign wealth fund risk management experience across Australia, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan. In 2014 Alex was named the Risk Manager of the Year by the Russian Risk Management Association.


Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo

Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo

Assistant Director of Technology and Standards, ProbabilityManagement.org

Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo volunteers as the Assistant Director of Technology and Standards at ProbabilityManagement.org. He currently serves as Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making.


Sam Savage

Sam Savage

Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member.