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Decision Support for Security Projects in a VUCA Environment

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About this workshop

Two key uncertainties often drive security projects -- 1) a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) threat landscape, and 2) varying degrees of effectiveness in reducing risk.

Influence (relevance) diagrams help us plan our model. Scenario planning provides a view of how the future might unfold. Stochastic decision models account for the full range of possible outcomes. Sensitivity analysis provides insight to which initiatives we should prioritize. Decision trees allow us to evaluate the robustness of the security project against the various scenarios.

By assembling these decision analytic tools in a thoughtful way (akin to LEGO blocks), we can clearly communicate the value of the project in business terms to support decision making.

These Speakers are giving away the following

Free Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows ($500 value) With all versions of the SIPmath Modeler Tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty. The Enterprise version of the SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows, a $500 value, includes numerous extra features such as correlated variables and one hour of technical support. One winner per workshop. To learn more, visit https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/enterprise

Offered by Sam Savage, Alex Sidorenko & Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo
ProbabilityManagement.org, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis & ProbabilityManagement.org

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Sam Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member.

Alex Sidorenko

Alex Sidorenko is an expert with over 15 years of private equity, sovereign wealth fund risk management experience across Australia, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan. In 2014 Alex was named the Risk Manager of the Year by the Russian Risk Management Association.

Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo

Eng-Wee Ethan Yeo volunteers as the Assistant Director of Technology and Standards at ProbabilityManagement.org. He currently serves as Principal, Technology Risk Modeling & Methodology at Kaiser Permanente. He is responsible for modeling, simulating and assessing non-financial technology risks to support decision making.

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