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Military Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?”

A workshop by Sam Savage and Connor McLemore
ProbabilityManagement.org and CANA Advisors

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Free Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows ($500 value) With all versions of the SIPmath Modeler Tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty. The Enterprise version of the SIPmath Modeler Tools for Windows, a $500 value, includes numerous extra features such as correlated variables and one hour of technical support. One winner per workshop. To learn more, visit https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/enterprise

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About this workshop

While the purpose of the Department of Defense (DoD) is accepted broadly to be “to provide ready and sustainable military forces to protect the nation’s vital interests,” the meaning of that statement is largely reliant upon the definition of the word “ready.” Yet it is unclear what ready means. Ready for what? How ready? By when?

The meaning of “readiness” as used in the military today is widely acknowledged to be vague and inconsistent. A data framework that uses stochastic scenario libraries would allow the military to characterize its probability of being ready for foreseeable missions across all its organizational levels while allowing for mathematically sound aggregation of the readiness of its units.

This comprehensive approach would benefit from a stochastic representation of readiness that allows lower-level readiness reports to be “rolled-up” into higher-level reports across unit types and military branches. Such an approach allows planners, commanders, and decision-makers to speak the same language to communicate, “How ready are units for what?”

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Sam Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member.

Connor McLemore

Connor McLemore volunteers as the Chair of National Security Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org. He currently works as a Principal Operations Research Analyst at CANA Advisors. He has over 12 years of experience in scoping, performing, and implementing analytic solutions and is a former naval officer with numerous operational deployments during 20 years of service.

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