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Uncertainty based capacity optimization

A Workshop by Hans Læssøe
Founder, AKTUS

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About this workshop

Most companies apply capacity planning to define when to invest in what equipment in order to be able to meet demand. For most companies, this is done using a sales plan/forecast which is then regarded as equalling the future demand based upon which a capacity profile is calculated. Uncertainty is catered for by applying experience/perception based maximum utilization level on various pieces of equipment. Analysing past forecasts and actual performance will show such forecasts are by no means precise – for many – even less so that what management believes/perceives.

This session shows a practical approach of how to analyse data, and how to build an effective Monte Carlo simulation based capacity planning model which defines equipment investment needs given a desired/targeted delivery service level. The approach can also show what delivery service level can be expected given decided investments – and hence allow for capacity optimization. Practical experience has shown this will lead to higher investments for some equipment groups as well as less investments in other groups.

The session will be based on a capacity planning model, which will be made available for attendees.

Hans Læssøe

Utilizing my experience and insights, AKTUS consulting focus on leveraging risk management and strategy processes to enhance organizational maneuverability and make this a competitive advantage for organizations. In a volatile world, management of risks needs to deliver more than being safe when the boat is rocking. Perservering requires intelligent risk taking ... having the ability and courage to be the one rocking the boat.

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